Hondo Yenyukireya—Ndivanaani Vangangoimutsa?
Hondo Yenyukireya—Ndivanaani Vangangoimutsa?
“Mukana wokuti tichatsakatiswa nenyukireya uripo zvechokwadi. Uripo nhasi, . . . kunyange zvazvo Hondo Yemashoko yakapera makore anodarika gumi apfuura.”—Aichimbova Munyori Webazi Rokudzivirirwa Kwenyika wokuUnited States, Robert S. McNamara naJames G. Blight, purofesa anoona nezvoukama hwenyika paWatson Institute for International Studies.
MUNA 1991 pakapera Hondo Yemashoko, chitanda chinoratidza maminitsi pawachi ine mukurumbira yezuva rakashurikidzwa chakadzorerwa shure kuti kusare maminitsi 17 kusvika “pakati pousiku.” Wachi yezuva rakashurikidzwa iri pabutiro remagazini yeBulletin of the Atomic Scientists uye chiratidzo chokuti nyika iri pedyo zvakadini nehondo yenyukireya (pakati pousiku). Panguva iyoyo, chitanda chemaminitsi chakadzoswa shure kubva pakati pousiku zvachakanga chisati chamboitwa kubvira pakagadzirwa wachi yacho muna 1947. Zvisinei, kubvira ipapo chitanda chemaminitsi chakatanga kufamba chichienda mberi zvakare. Somuenzaniso, muna February 2002, nguva yepawachi yacho yakaendeswa mberi kuti kusare maminitsi manomwe kusvika pakati pousiku, uko kwaiva kufambiswa kwechitatu kubvira pakapera Hondo Yemashoko.
Nei vabudisi vemagazini iyoyo yesayenzi vakafunga kuendesa wachi yacho mberi? Nei vachifunga kuti pachine mukana wokuti hondo yenyukireya ingangoitika? Uye ndiani angangovhiringidza rugare?
Chisingazivikanwi Pa“kuzvideredza”
“Zvombo zvenyukireya zvinodarika 31 000 zviri kugara zvakagadzirira kushandiswa,” inotsanangura kudaro Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Inoenderera mberi ichiti: “95 muzana yezvombo izvi iri muUnited States neRussia, uye zvinodarika 16 000 zvakatogadzirira kushandiswa.” Vamwe vangacherechedza kunoratidza sokupesana munhamba yezvombo zviripo zvenyukireya. Nyika idzi huru pazvombo zvenyukireya hadzina kuzivisa kare here kuti imwe neimwe yakanga yaderedza zvombo zvayo kusvika pa6 000?
Apa ndipo panoratidza zvisingazivikanwi pa“kuzvideredza.” Mumwe mushumo weCarnegie Endowment for International Peace unotsanangura kuti: “Nyika imwe neimwe yakabvumirwa kuti ive nezvombo 6 000 pachishandiswa nzira yokuverenga nayo yakabvumiranwa pachibvumirano cheSTART [Strategic Arms Reduction Talks]. Nyika mbiri dzacho dzichachengeta zvimwe zviuru zvezvombo zvinoshandiswa pamadaro mapfupi uye zvombo zvomudura.” (Ndisu tatsveyamisa mabhii.) Maererano neBulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “zvombo zvenyukireya zvakawanda kana zvisiri zvose zveUnited States zvinobviswa pazvombo zvakagadzirira kushandiswa zvichaiswa mudura (pane zvimwe 5 000 zvagara zvirimo) panzvimbo pokuzviparadza.”
Saka kuwedzera pazviuru zvezvombo zvenyukireya zvinoparadza uto noupfumi zvakatomirira kushandiswa zvichiri mudura—izvo zvinogona kukandwa kubva kune imwe kondinendi kuenda kune imwe zvakananga—kune zvimwe zviuru zvezvombo zvenyukireya nezvimwewo zvombo zvenyukireya zvinoshandiswa pamadaro mapfupi zvakagadzirira kurwisa muvengi anenge ari pedyo. Zviri pachena kuti nyika mbiri huru pazvombo zvenyukireya dzichakachengeta zvombo zvacho zvakawanda mumatura adzo zvinogona kuparadza kwazvo vanhu vose vari munyika kakapetwa kakawanda! Kuchengeta nhamba yakakura yezvombo zvine ngozi kudaro kunoita kuti pavezve neimwe ngozi—tsaona yokuputika kwezvombo zvenyukireya.
Hondo Yenyukireya Inoitika Netsaona
Maererano naRobert S. McNamara naJames G. Blight vambotaurwa, “Mauto anoshandisa nyukireya eUnited States ave achidzorwa nepfungwa yokuti ‘zvishandise kana paine nyevero yokuda kurwiswa.’” Izvi zvinorevei? “Zvombo zvedu zvakamirira kushandiswa nepo zvombo zveRussia zvitori muchadenga,” vanotsanangura kudaro, vachiwedzera kuti: “Patinongotanga kuziva kuti Russia yava kurwisa, hapagoni kupera maminitsi 15, tisati tashandisa zvombo zvedu maererano nezvisungo zvatakabvumirana.” Maererano nomumwe aimbova mukuru mukuru wezvombo zvenyukireya zvinoshandisirwa zvinhu zvepedyo wokuUnited States, “zvinenge zvombo zvose zviri panyika zvakagadzirira kushandiswa mumaminitsi maviri.”
Kugadzirira uku kunoita kuti pave nengozi yehondo yenyukireya inoitika netsaona ichikonzerwa nenyevero dzenhema. Imwe nyaya iri muU.S.News & World Report inotsanangura kuti, “Kanopfuura kamwe, pakaitwa chikanganiso chokupa mirayiridzo chaiyo yokushandisa zvombo izvi panguva yokudzidzira kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya muAmerica.” Nyevero dzenhema dzakadaro dzakapiwawo muRussia. Chimwe chitundu musere musere chokutsvakurudza chokuNorway pachakapa nyevero yenhema muna 1995, purezidhendi wokuRussia akatanga kugadzirira kuda kushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya.
Maitiro aya okugara zvakagadzirira kushandiswa anoomesera kwazvo vaya vanoita zvisarudzo. Sezvineiwo, kare vakuru vemauto vakaziva kuti nyevero idzodzo dzaiva dzenhema, uye nokudaro hondo yenyukireya yakadziviswa. Nezvechimwe chiitiko chomuna 1979, mumwe mutsvakurudzi akatsanangura kuti: “Chakaita kuti zvombo zvokuAmerica [zvisashandiswe] aiva masatellite edu anokurumidza kunyevera, ayo akaratidza kuti mudenga makanga musina zvombo zveSoviet.” Zvisinei, nokufamba kwenguva, masatellite iwayo anokurumidza kunyevera anosakara. Vatsvakurudzi nenyanzvi vari kunetseka kuti “masatellite akawanda anokurumidza kunyevera eRussia haachashandi kana kuti akarasika gwara rawo raanofanira kutenderera.” Saka, sokutaura kwakaita aimbova mutevedzeri womukuru mukuru wemauto omumvura wokuUnited States makore akawanda akapfuura kuti, “mukana wokurwisa imwe nyika isati yagadzirira kurwa kana kushandisa zvombo pamusana pokusanzwisisana, kushandisa vanhu vasina kukodzera kutungamirira kana kuitika netsaona, wakakura nhasi sezvazvakanga zvakaita kare.”
Dzimwe Nyika Dzave Nezvombo Zvenyukireya
Kunyange zvazvo matura makuru ezvombo zvenyukireya ari enyika huru dzine zvombo zvenyukireya, kune dzimwe nyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya dzakadai seChina, France, uye Great Britain. India nePakistan dzakabatanawo nenyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya dzinozivikanwa munguva ichangodarika iyi. Kunze kwenyika idzi, dzimwe nyika dzinoverengeka, kusanganisira Israel, dzinowanzorondedzerwa senyika dziri kutsvaka—kana kuti zvichida dzinotova—nezvombo zvenyukireya.
Kusawirirana mune zvematongerwe enyika kwenyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya, kusanganisira itsva dzacho, kunogona kutanga hondo yenyukireya. “Padambudziko rakaitika pakati peIndia nePakistan . . . ndipo pakapotsa pamuka hondo yenyukireya kubvira pakaitika dambudziko rakanzi Cuban Missile Crisis,” inotsanangura kudaro Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Vachiona kuwedzera kwomukana wehondo mukuvamba kwa2002, vanhu vakawanda vakawedzera kutya hondo yenyukireya.
Uyezve, kugadzirwa kwezvimwe zvombo zvinouraya vanhu vakawanda kwakaita kuti pave nemikana yakawanda yokushandisa bhomba renyukireya. Ichikurukura nezvomushumo wakavanzika wePentagon (vatungamiriri vemauto eUnited States), The New York Times yakataura kuti “mukana wokushandisa zvombo zvenyukireya kuparadza matura ezvombo zvoutachiona zvomuvengi, zvombo zvemakemikari nezvimwe zvombo zvinouraya vanhu vakawanda” ungava chikamu chebumbiro renyukireya rokuAmerica.
Kurwisa kwakaita magandanga muUnited States muna September 11, 2001, kwakapengenutsa nyika kuti izive kuti hondo yenyukireya inogona kuitika. Vakawanda iye zvino vanofunga kuti masangano emagandanga ari kuedza kugadzira—kana kuti zvimwe anotova—nezvombo zvenyukireya. Izvozvo zvinobvira sei?
Magandanga uye “Mabhomba Emarara Enyukireya”
Zvinobvira here kugadzira bhomba renyukireya pachishandiswa zvinhu zvinotengeswa pamusika usiri wepamutemo? Maererano nemagazini yeTime, izvi zvinobvira. Magazini yacho yakataura nezvechimwe chikwata chakaumbwa kuti chidzivirire ugandanga hwenyukireya. Kusvika pari zvino, chikwata chacho “chakaunganidza mabhomba anopfuura gumi nemaviri” okuzvigadzirira nokushandisa “zvinhu zvinogona kutengwa muzvitoro zvinotengesa zvinhu zvemagetsi uye nokushandisa zvinogadziriswa nyukireya zvinotengeswa pamusika usiri wepamutemo.”
Kutorwa kwezvombo zvenyukireya uye kugurunura zvombo zvenyukireya kwakawedzera mukana wokuti zvibiwe. Magazini yeTime inoti, “Kubvisa zviuru zvezvombo zvenyukireya zveRussia kubva pazvombo zvinokandwa, pamabhomba, uye pangarava dzehondo dzepasi pemvura zvinenge zvakanyatsochengetedzwa kwava kuzviunganidza munzvimbo dzisina kunyatsochengeteka kuchava muedzo kumagandanga anenge achizvida kwazvo.” Kana zvombo zvenyukireya zvakagurunurwa zvikawanikwa neboka duku revanhu zvobatanidzwazve, boka rakadaro rinogona kufanana nenyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya nenguva isipi!
Magazini inonzi Peace inotaura kuti hazvitombodi kugadzira bhomba kuti ubatanewo nenyika dzine zvombo zvenyukireya. Chinongodiwa kuwana uranium kana kuti plutonium inokwana kugadzira nyukireya. Magazini yacho inoti: “Magandanga ane uranium inogona kushandiswa kugadzira zvombo anozogona kugadzira chinhu chinoputika nokungobatanidza hafu neimwe hafu.” Panodiwa nyukireya yakawanda zvakadini? Maererano nemagazini iyoyo, “makirogiramu matatu anokwana.” Uwandu uhwu hwakada kufanana nohunodiwa kugadzira zvombo zvenyukireya hwakatorerwa matsotsi akasungwa muna 1994 muCzech Republic!
Marara enyukireya anogona kuva imwe mhando yezvombo zvenyukireya. “Chinonyanya kunetsa nyanzvi ndechokuti marara enyukireya anogona kubatanidzwa nezvimwe zvinhu zvinoputika zviripo kugadzira chinhu chinouraya,” inodaro The American Spectator. Zvombo zvorudzi urwu, zvinobudisa mwaranzi, zvinonzi mabhomba emarara. Ane ngozi zvakadini? Mabhomba emarara anoshandisa “zvinhu zvinoputika zviripo kuparadzira zvinhu zvine mwaranzi zvikuru nechinangwa chokuisa chepfu pavavengi pane kuvaparadza nokuputitsa nokupisa,” rinotsanangura kudaro pepanhau reIHT Asahi Shimbun. Rinoenderera mberi richiti: “Zvazvinoita pavanhu zvinogona kusiyana-siyana kubva pakurwariswa nemwaranzi kusvika parufu runorwadza runoitika zvishoma nezvishoma.” Kunyange zvazvo vamwe vachitaura kuti kushandisa marara enyukireya asinganetsi kuwana hakunyanyi kukuvadza, kuvapo kwemarara ane nyukireya anotengeswa pamusika usiri wepamutemo kunoita kuti vakawanda vanetseke. Maererano nokumwe kuongorora kwakaitwa munyika yose nguva pfupi yapfuura, vanopfuura 60 muzana pane vose vakataurwa navo vanofungidzira kuti ugandanga hwenyukireya huchaitika mumakore gumi ari kutevera.
Pasina mubvunzo, kutya nyukireya kuchakasimba munyika. Pepanhau reBritain rinonzi Guardian Weekly raJanuary 16-22, 2003, rakataura kuti: “Mukana wokuti United States ingangoshandisa zvombo zvenyukireya wakakura kupfuura pane imwe nguva ipi neipi kubva pamazuva akaipa kwazvo ehondo yemashoko. . . . United States iri kuramba ichiwedzera mukana wokumuka kwehondo yenyukireya.” Saka, zvinonzwisisika kubvunza kuti: Hondo yenyukireya inogona kudziviswa here? Pane tariro yenyika isina kutya nyukireya here? Mibvunzo iyi ichakurukurwa munyaya inotevera.
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Inguva Yenyukireya Yechipiri Here?
Achinyora muThe New York Times Magazine, mumwe munyori womupepanhau anonzi Bill Keller (uyo zvino ave mupepeti weThe New York Times) akaratidza pfungwa yokuti iye zvino nyika dzapinda munguva yenyukireya yechipiri. Yokutanga yakagumira muna January 1994, apo Ukraine yakabvuma kusiya zvombo zvayakanga yawana kubva kune yaichimbova Soviet Union. Nei achitaura nezvenguva yenyukireya yechipiri?
Keller anonyora kuti: “Nguva yenyukireya yechipiri yakaziviswa nokutinhira kwakaitika pasi pegwenga reRajasthani muna 1998, sezvo hurumende yeIndia yechiHindu yakanga ichangobva kusarudzwa yakaputitsa zvombo zvishanu ichizviedza. Papera vhiki mbiri Pakistan yakaitawo zvimwezvo.” Chii chakaita kuti kuedza zvombo uku kusiyane nokumwe kwenguva yenyukireya yakanga yapfuura? “Izvi zvakanga zviri zvombo zvenyukireya zvaiva nechinangwa chokushandiswa pane imwe nyika.”
Naizvozvo, nyika yose inganzwa yakachengeteka nokuva nedzimwe nyika mbiri dzine zvombo zvenyukireya here? Keller anoenderera mberi achiti: “Nyika itsva yoga yoga inowana zvombo zvenyukireya inowedzera mukana wokuti pave nehondo inoshandiswa zvombo zvenyukireya.”—“Zvinogoneka,” The New York Times Magazine, May 4, 2003, peji 50.
Mamiriro acho ezvinhu anowedzera kuomeswa nemashoko okuti North Korea ingangova “neplutonium yakawanda zvokugona kukwana kugadzira mabhomba enyukireya matanhatu matsva. . . . Zuva rimwe nerimwe rinowedzera ngozi yokuti North Korea ichabudirira kubudisa zvombo zvenyukireya zvitsva, uye zvimwe kunyange kuedza chimwe chazvo kuti iratidze kubudirira kwayo.”—The New York Times, July 18, 2003.
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Mukuru mukuru wehurumende anoratidza bhomba renyukireya rakaenzana nesutukesi
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AP Photo/Dennis Cook
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Ma“satellite” anokurumidza kunyevera nezvenyukireya ekare ava kusakara
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NASA photo
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Pasi: NASA photo